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Appendix VI.     Retracing 1994--  H. Camping's starting point

1994 AD:  This seems to have been our starting point in assembling the timeline of the End.

... Yet what, in particular, led Mr. Camping to suspect that exact year?  ...And allowed us, in turn, to accept it as the cornerstone which it has become?

1.  Several decades ago, Bible student Harold Camping determined the BC and AD years for key Biblical events, using clues within the Bible itself.

2.  Mr. Camping then noticed three of these events -- each related in theme -- were set apart in a pattern... of 430 years, and then twice times 430 years.  All three events seemed to mark turning points* during a period of tribulation for God's people.
*See list at bottom

    event 1       event 2                     event 3
       |             |                           |
       |             |                           |
    ---|--430 years--|--430 years--|--430 years--|---
       |             |                           |

3.  It is true we know the exact years for these three events... but what we are interested in now, is the vacant time in between... the time it took for the next interesting event to arrive, and repeat the theme at hand:  Turning points during tribulation.

The gaps we are looking at are (in years):

        'in-between-time' of 430
        'in-between-time' of 860.

So we have a total of 1290 years:  split into   One-third (430)  and  Two-thirds (860).

4.  Mr. Camping noticed the increasingly widening nature of this pattern.  Could one take this pattern, extend it into the future, and predict the location of subsequent, similar events--  Such as the final, great tribulation at the end of the world?

Seeking a pattern

But just what is the shape of this pattern?  With only three events and two gaps to suggest a pattern, we are faced with at least three different choices.

( 430's are replaced with 1's to simplify )

a. Linear growth

n-th gap = n

entirety = n-th triangular number

events:          E E  E   E    E     E
                 | |  |   |    |     |
gap sizes:       |1| 2| 3 |  4 |   5 |
                 | |  |   |    |     |
running totals:  0 1  3   6    10    15

b. Base-2 exponential growth of gap

n-th gap = 2^(n-1)

entirety = (2^n) - 1

events:          E E  E    E        E
                 | |  |    |        |
gap sizes:       |1| 2|  4 |    8   |
                 | |  |    |        |
running totals:  0 1  3    7        15

c. Base-3 exponential growth of running total

n-th gap = 3^(n-1) - 3^(n-2)

entirety = 3^(n-1)

events:          E E  E       E                  E
                 | |  |       |                  |
gap sizes:       |1| 2|    6  |        18        |
                 | |  |       |                  |
running totals:  0 1  3       9                  27

Apply models   a., b., & c.  to the 430(-year) pattern:

i. Linear.     gapn = n

      430 * {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}  ==>


ii. Exponential.     gapn = 2n-1

      430 * {1, 2, 4, 8}  ==>


iii. Exponential.     gapn = 3n-1

      430 * {1, 2, 6}  ==>


Plot results as BC - AD years

  i. Linear model

     1877 BC    1447 BC    587 BC     704 AD*    2150 AD**

 ii. Exponential 2n model

     1877 BC    1447 BC    587 BC    1134 AD*    4574 AD**

iii. Exponential 3n model

     1877 BC    1447 BC    587 BC    1994 AD

*   No tribulation is recorded for 704 AD or 1134 AD.
**  2150 AD and 4574 AD are not in our current era, now believed to be the end-times.


We began with a pattern of 430's (430 years, 860 years) filling the gaps between three ancient tribulations.

We found three mathematical explanations which fit this pattern.

We tested whether any of the three could produce a fourth possible tribulation point in our day.


Of the three likely patterns, we found that only Exponential, with base 3 is suitable.

This was the only pattern to reach directly from the last recorded tribulation point (587 BC) to our current era (1994), with no intermediate "landing-points". 

Significance  in the  Timeline of the End

In the above study, we see how "1994", the very first puzzle piece, was first spotted.

Given the context of "tribulation turning points", this discovery suggested 1994 AD as the likely the center of a fourth tribulation phase in an ancient pattern.  Subsequent dates, years, and daycounts have been addded to the puzzle; each seeming to instill certainty we are being led to a correct understanding of "the Biblical timeline of the End".

Summary of tribulation patterns

Mr. Camping hails the following as transition points in Biblical tribulation periods.  This chart outlines substantial similarities in the dynamics of these changes.

Tribulation Turning point Relief     
   Famine in Canaan 1877 BC    Corn, but in Egypt
   Bondage in Egypt 1447 BC    Liberty, but in the Wilderness
   Enemy in Jerusalem 587 BC    Refuge, but in Babylon
   Enemy in churches? 1994 AD?    Latter Rain, but out in the world?

Spacing of the four tribulations

H. Camping's next pieces in the puzzle

1994:  A milestone Jubilee

Mr. Camping describes 1994 as the  Jubilee*  of the  latter rain**

* Jubilee:  The Bible calls for a Jubilee every 50 years.
**Latter rain:  A 17-year period when the Gospel is sent forth by individuals
   outside the local churches, to begin the final in-gathering of the elect.

He explains the significance of the years in the above diagram:

"The miraculous crossing of the Jordan River took place in the year 1407 B.C., exactly 1,400 years before Christ was born, in the year 7 B.C., and exactly 1,440 years inclusive from A.D. 33 when Christ ... [demonstrated His] ... complete payment for the sins of all His true eternal people.

"It also occurred precisely 3,400 years before A.D. 1994 when Christ came as the Jubilee to announce to the world that through Christ, sinners can be set at liberty from their sins.  Indeed, we can see that the year 1407 B.C. was an important milestone in the development of the Calendar of History.

Time Has an End,  chapter 6 ,  for more about 1994 and the Jubilee.

Important notice  for readers of  "Time Has An End"

1988:  Framed by Creation and 1994

The year 1988:  13,000 years after Creation:  Is this where we begin the 2300 days of Daniel 8:14... Part One of the great tribulation? 

See  Time Has an End,  chapter 10 ,  for more about 1988 as the  start of the great tribulation;  and the  likely end of the church age .

Important notice  for readers of  "Time Has An End"

John O'Leary / Bible-calculator